Somalia’s current geopolitical state is dire and unfortunate. It is the result of what ethnic Somalis living in the horn have cultivated in the last 60 years. To understand the current situation, one must discuss important global geographical assets and countries with geopolitical significance.
Bab-el-Mandeb is a crucial maritime asset for Red Sea access and control. It is currently controlled by different entities from all directions. The east is controlled by the Southern Transitional council (STC) a UAE/Israel backed secessionist group, West is controlled by Djibouti, South is controlled by Somaliland, and the North is controlled by the Houthis.
Energy and oil from the Gulf heading to Europe and 10-12% of global trade goes through this gateway cementing its importance in the global economy. Whoever controls Bab-el-Mandeb controls the Red Sea. Countries on the Red Sea are all fighting over control of this asset as it is crucial to their security and economy. Countries with Red Sea access are Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Jordan, and Israel.
To control this crucial asset, Israel and its allies have created the Abraham Accords Agreement. According to the US and Israel, Abraham Accords is normalization agreements between Israel and Muslim majority nations backed and brokered by the US. It focuses on economic, security, and technological cooperations. While others disagree and call it a business and geopolitical transaction aimed at assisting Israel dominate others in the region. The agreement is a tool that helps Muslim majority countries supporting Israel in secret to come public with their support officially.
Countries who signed the Abraham Accords include the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Sudan, and Somaliland break away region of Somalia that will sign early next year. Abraham Accords will give Israel a strategic military bases to fight with Houthis.
In addition to the assets mentioned above, it is important to examine countries with similar situations to Somalia located in the region. Yemen is fragmented like Somalia due to its location. See the image above/below to understand the following points. The Houthis control former northern Yemen. Major cities controlled by the Houthis are Sana’a and the highlands. It is backed by Iran, and they have launched strikes against Isreal and Red Sea Shipping Lane. Houthis are the only group US/Israel have not defeated with intelligence, airstrikes, and surgical infantry. The US, in-disagreement with Israel, has signed a ceasefire with the Houthis leading to a pause in strikes at the Red Sea Shipping Lane via Bab-el-Mandeb.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), a secessionist Yemen group backed by UAE/Israel and its allies. Israel is currently planning to recognize this group to control the eastern side of Bab-el-Mandeb and build military bases to attach the Houthis inside Yemen. Major cities controlled by STC include Hadramawt and Aden. Saudi Arabia is actively doing air strikes on positions held by STC trying to prevent Israel from recognizing this group.
The Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) is the current internationally recognized Yemen government. PLC is backed by Saudi Arabia and control parts southern Yemen. Saudi Arabia sees PLC as their only hope to rebel the Israeli aggression in its own backyard and losing the Red Sea control. PLC and Saudi Arabia are in active aggression with STC over the control of eastern side of Bab-el-Mandeb.
Sudan is also facing similar fate to Somalia and Yemen. Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) is the internationally recognized government of Sudan. SAF is backed by Turkey, Rusia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. They control the Red Sea Access. They have signed the Abraham Accords but the parliament has not voted on the matter. Meanwhile, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) control Darfur and key economic resources gold mines and oil fields. RSF is backed by UAE and its allies (US/Israel). There are few more fractions of smaller scale controlling parts of Sudan.
The fate of Somalia will most likely be similar to Libya. Libya has two parallel governments recognized by different countries. The Government of National Unity (GNU) is the internationally recognized Libyan government. It controls Tripoli and Northwest of Libya. It is backed by Turkey and Italy while Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF) is the parallel government recognized by Rusia, Egypt, UAE (US/Israel) and France. LAAF controls much of the oil fields. Both parallel Libyan governments are fractured and the allies supporting each side is intentionally perpetuating this division to maximize their gains from the division among the Libyan people. The winners are Turkey and UAE which support different sides. While Libya is on the losing end.
Finally, Somalia has a Federal Government with federal member states. These states include Puntland, Somaliland, Southwest, Hirshabele, Galmudug, North Eastern State of Somali and Jubaland. The Federal Government of Somalia is weak and does not have defacto control over all its regions.
Recently, Somaliland was recognized by Israel due to its strategic location and access to Bab-el-Mandeb. Puntland is speculated to be the next to leave the union.
Though farfetched from the truth, it is debated that Puntland will form a parallel government. UAE and its allies will recognize this parallel government as the legitimate government of Somalia. This parallel government will be added to the Abraham Accords. Somaliland and Puntland led parallel governments will recognize each other as separate entities.
Somaliland/Israel partnership has two outcomes. Best outcome is for Somaliland to become the UAE version of Africa for Israel. Some might see this option as selling your soul to the devil, a losing end.
However, most realistic outcome is for Israel to build their military base in Awdal using their partners (US, UK, Germany, and France). This base will be controlled and run by Ethiopians like how Halane in Mogadishu is guarded by AUSSOM. Israel will never allow a Somali/Muslim African person to come near its base.
Israel will create fractions within Somaliland that perpetually fight each other due to religion and tribal affiliation. Israel and its allies will fund the opposing fractions to keep the fight going while Ethiopia will annex Awdal with the help of Israel and its allies.
Somalia/Puntland will be fractured more, different allies will use different sides to get Somalia’s resources for free. The Somali fractions will perpetually fight over tribal affiliations. Somalia/Puntland will become active volcanic ground for the global geopolitics involving Turkey and Israel. As the saying goes, “when the elephants fight, the grass looses”
Winners:
Israel has spent 12 days fighting Iran. The crucial lesson they learned from this event is the threat of the Houthis. Israel did not have an answer to the Houthi problem. Houthis live in mountainous area which airstrikes cannot penetrate. Israeli security agencies have failed to infiltrate the Houthis and do not have strategic military bases near the Houthis. Houthis have also demonstrated that they can harm Israel by blocking Bab-el-Mandab with strikes. It is a national security for Israel to control both the Houthis threat and Bab-el-Mandab.
By recognizing Somaliland and the STC secessionist of Yemen, they will control East and South of Bab-el-Mandab. Israel will get strategic military bases to fight with the Houthis on their home ground. This will give Israel the control of Bab-el-Mandab and the Red Sea
The US and its Western Allies will outwardly condemn the actions of Israel. Press releases will come out supporting the sovereignty of Somalia while they directly supply Israel with resources crucial to achieving its goal. US and its allies will block the UN security council from voting on this issue, thus, helping Israel. This is the Palestine playbook we have seen the last sixty years.
Turkey will get their energy and strategic military sources from the Mogadisho Federal Government just like they get their benefit from the Libyan GNU. If Turkey gets its piece of the pie from the fragmentation of Somalia, they will not care about Somalia. Turkey will actively work with Puntland to acquire a military base in Lasqoray. Lasqoray is the closest Puntland point to Somaliland and the future Israeli military base.
Ethiopia will get access to the Red Sea via Awdal and will annex that region with the help of Israel.
Author: Dr Ismail Isse